India’s real GDP growth for 2025-26 is forecasted to exceed 6.5% by leading rating agency ICRA. This optimistic outlook signals steady recovery, robust domestic demand, and resilience in key sectors despite global uncertainties.
Key Highlights of ICRA’s Real GDP Projection
- Forecast: Above 6.5% growth for FY 2025-26
- Drivers: Strong services sector, rural recovery, and sustained government capex
- Risks: Monsoon dependence, global commodity prices, and geopolitical factors
- Source: ICRA research update, June 2025
Factors Behind India’s Real GDP Growth for 2025-26
1️⃣ Robust Government Spending
- Increased allocation for infrastructure projects under Union Budget 2025
- Faster execution of highways, railways, and green energy corridors
2️⃣ Resilient Private Consumption
- Urban demand remains strong due to stable job market
- Rural demand expected to improve with normal monsoon and crop output
3️⃣ Services Sector Leads the Pack
- IT, financial services, and tourism drive services GVA
- Consistent FDI inflow supports expansion and employment
Policy and Regulatory Support
- RBI maintains balanced monetary policy to control inflation
- Tax reforms and digitalisation boost compliance and ease of doing business
- Export incentives and PLI schemes push manufacturing
Official Source: RBI Monetary Policy
Expert View: Cautious Optimism for 2025-26
While 6.5% plus growth is promising, experts advise businesses to:
- Monitor global headwinds like oil prices and supply chain risks
- Plan working capital smartly to tackle interest rate swings
- Leverage government schemes for credit and tax benefits
What Does It Mean for Indian Businesses?
✅ Better growth opens up new market opportunities
✅ Higher consumer spending means more sales for MSMEs
✅ Strong GDP figures improve credit ratings and investor confidence
Quick Comparison Table
| Factor | FY 2024-25 | FY 2025-26 (ICRA) |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP Growth | ~6.5% (estimated) | Exceeds 6.5% |
| Inflation | ~5% | Expected to moderate |
| Fiscal Deficit | 5.1% of GDP | Gradual consolidation |
| Capex | ₹11.1 lakh crore | Higher allocations expected |
Source: Budget 2025 & ICRA
FAQs on India’s Real GDP Growth
Q1: What is Real GDP?
Real GDP adjusts for inflation and shows true economic output.
Q2: Who releases India’s official GDP data?
The National Statistical Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.
Q3: Where can I check quarterly GDP data?
Visit the official mospi.gov.in portal.
Final Thoughts
India’s real GDP growth exceeding 6.5% in FY 2025-26 shows economic stability and growth momentum. Businesses should prepare for expansion, compliance, and smart tax planning.
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Summary
India’s real GDP growth is projected to surpass 6.5% in FY 2025-26, says ICRA. Backed by robust government spending, resilient consumption, and a strong services sector, this forecast offers fresh opportunities for businesses to expand while staying compliant with tax and regulatory norms.